Forex Market Analysis Today [2024.05.31]: The Last Day of May

Hello Traders,

It’s 31st May 2024, Friday, the last day of the month. As we wrap up May, it’s time to reflect on the market movements we’ve witnessed over the past few weeks. Today’s trading session is crucial, not just because it marks the end of the month but also because it sets the stage for the market trends we can expect in June.

So let’s get started with our Forex Market Analysis today.

Key Trading Events Today

These events encompass important global news, macroeconomic reports, and economic indicators. For more details, you can check the Forex Factory Economic Calendar.

The EUR is releasing its CPI data today, which often causes significant movement in EUR pairs. We also have the GDP report from Canada, which can lead to volatility in the USDCAD pair. Lastly, the PCE Index, used by the Fed to measure inflation in the US, is also scheduled for release today.

EURUSD:

Looking at EURUSD, as we discussed in previous articles, the long-term trend is still upward. However, on the 1-hour chart, there is a medium-term downtrend. The price should not drop below the red line; if it does, the overall long-term trend may change.

After hitting a low, the price went back up to a resistance level before pulling back. It now seems to be in a correction phase. If the price breaks above the small green trend line, we can expect it to continue rising. On the other hand, if the price drops to the lower trend line, it should start going back up from there. However, if the price breaks below that trend line, it could drop even further. So, keep an eye on the three lines indicated on the 1-hour chart.

USDCAD:

Looking at USDCAD, the long-term trend is bullish, meaning the price should keep going up. On the 1-hour chart, the price is near its support level, so it is unlikely to fall below the big sloping trend line.

We can expect the price to continue rising from the small trend line indicated on the 1-hour chart. However, if the price breaks below this level, it should find support around the next big trend line. If that level also breaks, the overall long-term trend may turn bearish. Overall, the likelihood of the price continuing to rise is high, so watch for any potential breakouts along these lines.

Also, keep in mind that today the USDCAD is releasing its GDP data, which is a volatile event for this pair. If you are trading USDCAD today, proceed with caution.

USDJPY:

The USDJPY is still in an uptrend, and the price should continue to rise. Looking at the 1-hour chart, we can see that the price has tried to break a support level multiple times but failed. Right now, it has bounced off that support line and is trading around its resistance level.

If the price manages to break through this resistance level, we can expect it to continue rising to the next resistance levels. As each level is broken, the price should keep going up. However, keep in mind that if the price somehow breaks the support line around 156.570, the USDJPY could fall further.

GBPUSD:

The long-term trend for GBPUSD is bullish. Looking at the daily chart, we see that the price is trading around its resistance level and has pulled back a bit, which might be a correction. The strongest support and resistance levels are 1.25000 and 1.28000.

On the 1-hour chart, there is a medium-term uptrend. After reaching a high, the price went back up to a resistance level before pulling back to a low. Right now, it is trading around that low. If the price breaks below the trend line, it could drop further. However, the price could also start rising from this level. So, keep an eye out for any breakouts.

USDCHF:

It looks like USDCHF is in a sideways trend, with strong support around 0.90000. On the 1-hour chart, the price is trading around 0.90600, where there is a small support level. If the price breaks the support level around 0.90200, it could fall to 0.90000. If it breaks that level too, it may indicate a downward trend, and the price could keep falling. On the other hand, the price might start rising again from this support or from around 0.90000.

AUDUSD:

AUDUSD is currently in an uptrend but also in a correction phase. On the 1-hour chart, the price reached a support level, started to rise again, but then began to consolidate. You can see two small support and resistance levels. If the price breaks above the resistance, we can expect it to continue rising. On the other hand, if the price breaks below the support, it could drop to the 0.65940 level. If that level is also broken, the price may drop even further.

NZDUSD:

Looking at NZDUSD, it’s currently in an uptrend. After breaking a resistance level, it’s trading near that level. On the 1-hour chart, the support and resistance levels are 0.60850 and 0.61380 respectively.

It’s a similar situation to AUDUSD. If the price breaks below the support level, we can expect it to drop further. Conversely, if the price breaks above the resistance level, we can expect it to rise to the 0.62150 level. So, it’s wise to wait for a breakout to confirm the direction. Additionally, you can take advantage of the mean-reverting momentum between these two levels.

Keep in mind that the PCE Index is releasing today. While it’s not as volatile as CPI data, it’s still an important event that people are waiting for. Therefore, there might be some volatility in the market as a result. All USD currency pairs are likely to be affected by this release to some extent.

Disclaimer

The information provided in this market analysis is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as financial advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any securities or investments.

All investments involve risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. The analysis provided may not be suitable for all investors and should be used at their own discretion.

These analyses are here to help you understand how to analyze the market. They’re not about giving buy or sell signals. It’s simply about observing market behavior. I don’t recommend when to buy or sell because trading doesn’t work that way. You need a strategy to guide your decisions about when to enter or exit positions. That’s the key to making consistent profits in the financial markets over time.

I discussed these sectors and markets because when the entire market or sector goes through certain movements, most of the stocks within that market will also experience similar movements. So, by understanding what the market is doing, you can conduct your own analysis on specific coins or stocks.

Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research.

Trading and investing in financial markets carry inherent risks, including the risk of losing invested capital. It is important to carefully consider your investment objectives, risk tolerance, and financial situation before making any investment decisions.

GOOD LUCK!!!